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Topological Models and Critical Slowing down: Two Approaches to Power System Blackout Risk Analysis

TitleTopological Models and Critical Slowing down: Two Approaches to Power System Blackout Risk Analysis
Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2011
AuthorsHines, P., E. Cotilla-Sanchez, and S. Blumsack
Conference Name2011 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS 2011)
Pagination1 - 10
Date Published01/2011
PublisherIEEE
Conference LocationKauai, HI
ISBN Number978-1-4244-9618-1
Abstract

This paper describes results from the analysis of two approaches to blackout risk analysis in electric power systems. In the first analysis, we compare two topological (graph-theoretic) methods for finding vulnerable locations in a power grid, to a simple model of cascading outage. This comparison indicates that topological models can lead to misleading conclusions about vulnerability. In the second analysis, we describe preliminary results indicating that both a simple dynamic power system model and frequency data from the August 10, 1996 disturbance in North America show evidence of critical slowing down as the system approaches a failure point. In both examples, autocorrelation in the time- domain signals (frequency and phase angle), significantly increases before reaching the critical point. These results indicate that critical slowing down could be a useful indicator of increased blackout risk.

DOI10.1109/HICSS.2011.444